LOS VEINTE MEJORES POR ORDEN DE FAVORITISMO PARA EL KENTUCKY DERBY A CORRERSE EL SABADO 5 DE MAYO.

#	Horse / Sire	Watchmaker Odds	Points	Best Beyer	Owner, Trainer, and Jockey	Last Race, Result, and Beyer	Next Likely Race, Track, and Date	Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
1	Verrazano by More Than Ready	5-1	150	105	Let's Go Stable, Magnier, Tabor T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez	Wood Memorial, 4/6 1st by 3/4, 95	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	Jay Privman: Did what he had to do in the Wood. He stalked, came home fast, and held off rivals. Mike Watchmaker: Also thought his Wood was better than others did. He's still the one to beat.
2	Orb by Malibu Moon	6-1	150	97	Stuart Janney 3rd & Phipps St. C. McGaughey/J. Rosario	Florida Derby, 3/30 1st by 2 3/4, 97	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Liked way he reeled in Itsmyluckyday, kicked clear. Seems to be getting better and better. MW: And I liked how he handled an unfavorable pace. Closers need luck in Derby, but he's solid.
3	Goldencents by Into Mischief	8-1	129	105	W. C. Racing, et al D. O'Neill/K. Krigger	Santa Anita Derby, 4/6 1st by 1 1/4, 105	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Ran the best race of his life in SA Derby. Relaxed better, and turned in career-high Beyer fig. MW: The fig was there, and the performance was gutsy, but how good are the horses he beat?
4	Revolutionary by War Pass	8-1	110	102	WinStar Farm T. Pletcher/C. Borel	Louisiana Derby, 3/30 1st by a neck, 93	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Was skeptical of field he beat in Withers, but liked La. Derby a lot. Big-time Derby player. MW: Performed professionally at FG, but let's not forget he was life and death to beat Mylute.
5	Normandy Invasion by Tapit	10-1	44	99	Fox Hill Farms C. Brown/J. Castellano	Wood Memorial, 4/6 2nd by 3/4, 94	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Wasn't sure what to make of him after Risen Star, but Wood was definitely a move forward. MW: Nice finish into slow Wood pace, but so far, he's run better at Aqueduct than anywhere else.
6	Itsmyluckyday by Lawyer Ron	12-1	50	104	Trilogy Stable & Laurie Plesa E. Plesa Jr./E. Trujillo	Florida Derby, 3/30 2nd by 2 3/4, 93	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: No match in the final furlong for Orb, but still ran well in first start in more than two months. MW: Now, the big question: Can he replicate his excellent Gulfstream form on another track?
7	Java's War by War Pass	15-1	122	96	Charles Fipke K. McPeek/J. Leparoux	Blue Grass, 4/13 1st by a neck, 89	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Think he's a very sneaky horse. Liked return on dirt in Tampa, closed strongly to win at Kee. MW: A big concern is, he's not so good that he can expect to overcome another lazy start at CD.
8	Overanalyze by Dixie Union	15-1	110	99	Repole Stable T. Pletcher/R. Bejarano	Arkansas Derby, 4/13 1st by 4 1/4, 88	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Disappointed in first start of year, but showed improvement in Ark. Derby, though fig was low. MW: He improved only two Beyer points at OP off his empty Gotham. The Ark. Derby was soft.
9	Vyjack by Into Mischief	15-1	70	96s	Pick Six Racing R. Rodriguez/G. Gomez	Wood Memorial, 4/6 3rd by 1, 93	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Wood was deceptively good. Prefers to sit back, make one run. Race shape was against him. MW: Even if he's best as a deep closer, he'll have to improve a notch, and will need luck at CD.
10	Govenor Charlie by Midnight Lute	20-1	50	95	Michael Pegram B. Baffert/M. Garcia	Sunland Derby, 3/24 1st by 5, 95	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: No works since April 11 owing to hind foot problem, and he's only run 3 times. Not for me. MW: Verrazano has just 4 starts, but it does seem the vibes around this horse now are negative.
11	Palace Malice by Curlin	20-1	50	93	Dogwood Stable T. Pletcher/M. Smith	Blue Grass, 4/13 2nd by a neck, 89	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: After horrible trip in Louisiana Derby, he made good use of final prep to earn Ky. Derby berth. MW: But he wasn't good enough in the Blue Grass, and after a smooth trip; must raise his game.
12	Will Take Charge by Unbridled's Song	20-1	60	95	Willis Horton D. W. Lukas/J. Court	Rebel, 3/16 1st by a head, 95	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Downgraded after poor try on sloppy, sealed track in Southwest, but he rebounded in Rebel. MW: Rebel was his best race so far, but he's been wildly inconsistent. Can he put two together?
13	Charming Kitten by Kitten's Joy	30-1	20	88	Ken & Sarah Ramsey T. Pletcher/undecided	Blue Grass, 4/13 3rd by 1/2, 88	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Ken Ramsey is going to the Derby! He's the least-regarded of Pletcher's Fab Five, though. MW: Hope just being in it is enough for Ramsey, because this colt is a total unknown on dirt.
14	Frac Daddy by Scat Daddy	30-1	44	91	Magic City Thb'd Partners K. McPeek/V. Lebron	Arkansas Derby, 4/13 2nd by 4 1/4, 81	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Quality of Ark. Derby questionable. Never been a big fan of this guy, but he earned the points. MW: Has not run a race yet that says he can win this, and that includes his two stakes seconds.
15	Lines of Battle by War Front	30-1	100	74t	Allen, Magnier, Tabor, et al A. O'Brien/R. Moore	UAE Derby, 3/30 1st by 1 1/2, 111 (RPR)	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Derby to be first dirt race. Pedigree suggests he can handle it. Hope to see him work at CD. MW: Given the lack of past success, the first Ky. Derby winner out of UAE will be at my expense.
16	Mylute by Midnight Lute	30-1	41	93	Gold Mark & Whisper Hill Farms T. Amoss/R. Napravnik	Louisiana Derby, 3/30 2nd by a neck, 93	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Didn't like way he gave it up in Risen Star, but he bounced back with better effort in La. Derby. MW: Had La. Derby won, but he couldn't hold on late. Doubt added distance at CD will help him.
17	Oxbow by Awesome Again	30-1	36	95	Calumet Farm D. W. Lukas/G. Stevens	Arkansas Derby, 4/13 5th by 5 1/4, 80	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Until Ark. Derby, had fired every time. That was a step back, plus Beyer was poor. Puzzler. MW: Even if he got his bad race out of his system now, he still seems a cut below the best here.
18	Black Onyx by Rock Hard Ten	50-1	50	90	Sterling Racing K. Breen/J. Bravo	Spiral, 3/23 1st by 1 1/2, 90	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Breen one of the best in game at flying below the radar while shrewdly managing his horses. MW: Must substantially improve to complete the Spiral-Derby double turned by Animal Kingdom.
19	Falling Sky by Lion Heart	50-1	30	92	Newtown Anner Stud, et al J. Terranova 2nd/L. Saez	Arkansas Derby, 4/13 4th by 5, 80	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4	JP: Can't find any evidence in recent races that he's capable of handling this kind at this point. MW: It's not that his form is bad. It isn't. He just falls well short of being a Gr.1, 10 furlong horse.
20	Titletown Five by Tiznow	50-1	0	98s	Hornung, Martin, Lukas, et al D. W. Lukas/G. Stevens	Louisiana Derby, 3/30 9th by 8 1/2, 79	Derby Trial, 1 m Churchill Downs, 4/27	JP: Listed because Derby Trial worth 20 points to winner. Lukas trains, Hornung lives in Louisville. MW: I actually liked him at FG, but he was surprisingly hooked early. This is a different ballgame.
Horses listed in order of Watchmaker odds (s) Top Beyer earned in sprint; (t) Top Beyer earned on turf; (RPR) Racing Post Rating

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