jueves, 25 de abril de 2013

LOS VEINTE MEJORES POR ORDEN DE FAVORITISMO PARA EL KENTUCKY DERBY A CORRERSE EL SABADO 5 DE MAYO.

# Horse / Sire Watchmaker Odds Points Best Beyer Owner, Trainer, and Jockey Last Race, Result, and Beyer Next Likely Race, Track, and Date Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
1 Verrazano
by More Than Ready
5-1 150 105 Let's Go Stable, Magnier, Tabor
T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez
Wood Memorial, 4/6
1st by 3/4, 95
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
Jay Privman: Did what he had to do in the Wood. He stalked, came home fast, and held off rivals.
Mike Watchmaker: Also thought his Wood was better than others did. He's still the one to beat.
 
2 Orb
by Malibu Moon
6-1 150 97 Stuart Janney 3rd & Phipps St.
C. McGaughey/J. Rosario
Florida Derby, 3/30
1st by 2 3/4, 97
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Liked way he reeled in Itsmyluckyday, kicked clear. Seems to be getting better and better.
MW: And I liked how he handled an unfavorable pace. Closers need luck in Derby, but he's solid.
 
3 Goldencents
by Into Mischief
8-1 129 105 W. C. Racing, et al
D. O'Neill/K. Krigger
Santa Anita Derby, 4/6
1st by 1 1/4, 105
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Ran the best race of his life in SA Derby. Relaxed better, and turned in career-high Beyer fig.
MW: The fig was there, and the performance was gutsy, but how good are the horses he beat?
 
4 Revolutionary
by War Pass
8-1 110 102 WinStar Farm
T. Pletcher/C. Borel
Louisiana Derby, 3/30
1st by a neck, 93
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Was skeptical of field he beat in Withers, but liked La. Derby a lot. Big-time Derby player.
MW: Performed professionally at FG, but let's not forget he was life and death to beat Mylute.
 
5 Normandy Invasion
by Tapit
10-1 44 99 Fox Hill Farms
C. Brown/J. Castellano
Wood Memorial, 4/6
2nd by 3/4, 94
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Wasn't sure what to make of him after Risen Star, but Wood was definitely a move forward.
MW: Nice finish into slow Wood pace, but so far, he's run better at Aqueduct than anywhere else.
 
6 Itsmyluckyday
by Lawyer Ron
12-1 50 104 Trilogy Stable & Laurie Plesa
E. Plesa Jr./E. Trujillo
Florida Derby, 3/30
2nd by 2 3/4, 93
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: No match in the final furlong for Orb, but still ran well in first start in more than two months.
MW: Now, the big question: Can he replicate his excellent Gulfstream form on another track?
 
7 Java's War
by War Pass
15-1 122 96 Charles Fipke
K. McPeek/J. Leparoux
Blue Grass, 4/13
1st by a neck, 89
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Think he's a very sneaky horse. Liked return on dirt in Tampa, closed strongly to win at Kee.
MW: A big concern is, he's not so good that he can expect to overcome another lazy start at CD.
 
8 Overanalyze
by Dixie Union
15-1 110 99 Repole Stable
T. Pletcher/R. Bejarano
Arkansas Derby, 4/13
1st by 4 1/4, 88
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Disappointed in first start of year, but showed improvement in Ark. Derby, though fig was low.
MW: He improved only two Beyer points at OP off his empty Gotham. The Ark. Derby was soft.
 
9 Vyjack
by Into Mischief
15-1 70 96s Pick Six Racing
R. Rodriguez/G. Gomez
Wood Memorial, 4/6
3rd by 1, 93
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Wood was deceptively good. Prefers to sit back, make one run. Race shape was against him.
MW: Even if he's best as a deep closer, he'll have to improve a notch, and will need luck at CD.
 
10 Govenor Charlie
by Midnight Lute
20-1 50 95 Michael Pegram
B. Baffert/M. Garcia
Sunland Derby, 3/24
1st by 5, 95
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: No works since April 11 owing to hind foot problem, and he's only run 3 times. Not for me.
MW: Verrazano has just 4 starts, but it does seem the vibes around this horse now are negative.
 
11 Palace Malice
by Curlin
20-1 50 93 Dogwood Stable
T. Pletcher/M. Smith
Blue Grass, 4/13
2nd by a neck, 89
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: After horrible trip in Louisiana Derby, he made good use of final prep to earn Ky. Derby berth.
MW: But he wasn't good enough in the Blue Grass, and after a smooth trip; must raise his game.
 
12 Will Take Charge
by Unbridled's Song
20-1 60 95 Willis Horton
D. W. Lukas/J. Court
Rebel, 3/16
1st by a head, 95
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Downgraded after poor try on sloppy, sealed track in Southwest, but he rebounded in Rebel.
MW: Rebel was his best race so far, but he's been wildly inconsistent. Can he put two together?
 
13 Charming Kitten
by Kitten's Joy
30-1 20 88 Ken & Sarah Ramsey
T. Pletcher/undecided
Blue Grass, 4/13
3rd by 1/2, 88
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Ken Ramsey is going to the Derby! He's the least-regarded of Pletcher's Fab Five, though.
MW: Hope just being in it is enough for Ramsey, because this colt is a total unknown on dirt.
 
14 Frac Daddy
by Scat Daddy
30-1 44 91 Magic City Thb'd Partners
K. McPeek/V. Lebron
Arkansas Derby, 4/13
2nd by 4 1/4, 81
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Quality of Ark. Derby questionable. Never been a big fan of this guy, but he earned the points.
MW: Has not run a race yet that says he can win this, and that includes his two stakes seconds.
 
15 Lines of Battle
by War Front
30-1 100 74t Allen, Magnier, Tabor, et al
A. O'Brien/R. Moore
UAE Derby, 3/30
1st by 1 1/2, 111 (RPR)
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Derby to be first dirt race. Pedigree suggests he can handle it. Hope to see him work at CD.
MW: Given the lack of past success, the first Ky. Derby winner out of UAE will be at my expense.
 
16 Mylute
by Midnight Lute
30-1 41 93 Gold Mark & Whisper Hill Farms
T. Amoss/R. Napravnik
Louisiana Derby, 3/30
2nd by a neck, 93
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Didn't like way he gave it up in Risen Star, but he bounced back with better effort in La. Derby.
MW: Had La. Derby won, but he couldn't hold on late. Doubt added distance at CD will help him.
 
17 Oxbow
by Awesome Again
30-1 36 95 Calumet Farm
D. W. Lukas/G. Stevens
Arkansas Derby, 4/13
5th by 5 1/4, 80
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Until Ark. Derby, had fired every time. That was a step back, plus Beyer was poor. Puzzler.
MW: Even if he got his bad race out of his system now, he still seems a cut below the best here.
 
18 Black Onyx
by Rock Hard Ten
50-1 50 90 Sterling Racing
K. Breen/J. Bravo
Spiral, 3/23
1st by 1 1/2, 90
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Breen one of the best in game at flying below the radar while shrewdly managing his horses.
MW: Must substantially improve to complete the Spiral-Derby double turned by Animal Kingdom.
 
19 Falling Sky
by Lion Heart
50-1 30 92 Newtown Anner Stud, et al
J. Terranova 2nd/L. Saez
Arkansas Derby, 4/13
4th by 5, 80
Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/4
JP: Can't find any evidence in recent races that he's capable of handling this kind at this point.
MW: It's not that his form is bad. It isn't. He just falls well short of being a Gr.1, 10 furlong horse.
 
20 Titletown Five
by Tiznow
50-1 0 98s Hornung, Martin, Lukas, et al
D. W. Lukas/G. Stevens
Louisiana Derby, 3/30
9th by 8 1/2, 79
Derby Trial, 1 m
Churchill Downs, 4/27
JP: Listed because Derby Trial worth 20 points to winner. Lukas trains, Hornung lives in Louisville.
MW: I actually liked him at FG, but he was surprisingly hooked early. This is a different ballgame.
 
Horses listed in order of Watchmaker odds
(s) Top Beyer earned in sprint; (t) Top Beyer earned on turf; (RPR) Racing Post Rating


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